Sideshow’s View: Week 7 Fixtures

What a truly ridiculous season of Premiership. Every single team can make playoffs, and it’s the final week. As far as I’m aware, this has never happened before in a season of ETF2L. Of course, for some teams it is more probably than others; for Foreskings in 8th place it would require some form of miracle for them to take them into the fourth place spot, and Planet Express and Infused are likely to cripple each other in at a desperate scramble to the playoff spot. Quite frankly though, anything is possible after last week’s results. 


We saw dd+5 abs take both maps away from LEGO, winning the mids on Gullywash to steal a victory and riding the tilt all the way to a comeback on Product. Full credit to chappie, qnx, and dd5f, but it was one of the biggest throws I have ever seen from LEGO. Their inability to close out the maps, even when 2-0 up on Product, has cost them an otherwise-guaranteed playoff spot.


Infused were able to take Gullywash 5-0 from Publiclir, exploiting the map problems and midfight issues that I outlined for a resounding victory. They were unable to take Product though, as atomic and fl1p tore Infused apart.


Planet Express made it much closer than expected too against a nerdRage lacking kaidus’ input. Planet Express came out on top of every midfight on Gullywash, along with the first few on Product, to give themselves a large advantage. nerdRage also failed the majority of their last pushes to give Planet Express as many opportunities as possible, but in the end the superior team came out on top.

dd+5 abs may well have one of the most ridiculous stories in Premiership. A team barely able to qualify before the season after a mediocre performance in the High playoffs, this team has shot up the tables. Their ability to do so has been purely from two fixtures: their game against Infused where they managed to pull two extra points than would be expected, and their incredible upset last week against LEGO. Compared to the other lower Premiership teams, dd+5 abs’ ability to close out maps against their opponents has given them a huge advantage. If they can take more than 4 points from this fixture, they’re quite likely to make playoffs in fourth. If they destroy their fixture against the Israeli team, they could well make third. This is a phenomenal season for dd+5 abs, who I still expect would lose in tournaments against most Premiership teams. Foreskings have traded maps with every team in lower Premiership apart from a tight GC against Planet Express, where they were forced to play with merc Sorrow. They will not be pushovers, whatever their current spot in the tables suggest.

Roster Showdown

 

 Honey Badger          Zangetsu         

chappie          Spary   

      qnx          wackey

          dd5f   JackyLegs

          ixy   Shulqiple

   Sjoeberg  s0rex        

 

Map Analysis

 

dd+5 abs had a monstrous comeback on Product last week against LEGO. Down 2-0, chappie, qnx, and dd5f went on a killing spree and won the majority of the teamfights with their projectiles. This was, in large part, due to iZon and sorex not being positioned correctly to deny their aggression and led to a stupidly large amount of deaths for Condom. Shulqiple and s0rex have much more passive styles than the LEGO scouts, but they also have quite significantly worse deathmatch. They’re likely to have a more classic structure as well, with Spary taking a large amount of heals and JackyLegs playing the flank against dd5f. Interestingly, Badlands was the first ban every time for dd+5 abs during the High playoffs. They did not want to play it at all during S22, and lost by windifference to nerdRage at the beginning of S23 (although that tells us very little). On the other hand, Foreskings won against Publiclir on Badlands at the beginning of this season, with JackyLegs and wackey performing incredibly.

 

Predictions

 

Map data in TF2 is always abominable. After over 5 months of these two teams playing within the top 16, there is almost nothing to gauge their ability. Before I start a tirade on how we need to transition to a tournament-based scene rather than relying on leagues, I’ll just use this to insert a caveat. Although it would seem, from map bans and shaky performances, that one of dd+5 abs’ worst maps is Badlands, and it remains a solid pick for Foreskings, it may all have changed over the months in between. Nonetheless, I do believe Foreskings will win on Badlands, as I think they’re able to consistently perform against Premiership teams and have better teamplay than dd+5 abs. On Product though, this is a mystery. Before last week I would have felt reasonably safe backing Foreskings to win on both maps, but given their propensity to draw against opponents and dd+5 abs stellar comeback against LEGO, I think it’s a toss-up. Overall I think it’s unlikely that dd+5 abs will be able to take 4 or more points from this fixture; a draw will see them end the season on 17 points, relying on one of LEGO or Publiclir to crush the other.

 

 

 

Perilous Gaming vs. nerdRage

 

An interesting preview to the playoffs. Perilous will end in 1st place if they take 5 or 6 points from this fixture, and that requires a victory on Product due to Golden Cap rules. 

Roster Showdown

 

                    kos          Permzilla         

    spudd          kaidus 

  Silentes          kaptain 

    Sideshow   Drackk      

      Thalash   Stark        

                  Astt  Hafficool        

 

Map Analysis

 

Perilous avoided having to face Foreskings last week on Product, which gives us no data to judge them on and robs them of some crucial practice. nerdRage were lacking calls during their game against Planet Express, but still won every round (granted the first two went to overtime for both teams). Their scout combo of Stark and Hafficool looks very strong, and Drackk was doing solid work on the flank. With the return of strong calling to the combo, they should be able to take this map. Badlands will be more open, as a good map for both of these teams it is likely to be a drawn-out, patient affair which much riding on the midfights.

 

Predictions

 

Perilous have to win Product in order to finish in first place this season. This is a tall order for the second place team, and will have to overcome a stronger flank on one of their worse maps. It is likely to go the way of nerdRage comfortably even though each individual round will doubtless feel close, as is the way with Product. Badlands in any other setting would be a fierce map, and will be should Perilous take Product. However, if Perilous Gaming’s ability to take first place has vanished by the time Badlands rolls around, I imagine we’ll see the teams testing each other out for playoffs, rather than expending all their effort to win.

 

 

 

LEGO vs. Publiclir.se

 

LEGO severely dropped the ball last week. Not only did they lose their grip on Gullywash, throwing away every midfight without dmoule making a shadow of an impact, but they then lost a 2-0 lead on Product. They’ve had a very inconsistent season so far, as the only team to take a map from Perilous so far but otherwise looking no further ahead than any other team. They also managed to beat nerdRage on Sunshine in the ZOWIE 16, but their inability to perform against weaker opponents is crippling them. LEGO are currently sat in 4th place, overtaken by the team they’re fighting this week, Publiclir. One of these teams is guaranteed to be on at least 18 points, and if they split the points fairly evenly then they may both make playoffs. If one team dominates the other though, the loser will probably leave the playoff spot.

Roster Showdown

 

               Condom          ondkaja         

      Dr. Phil          Smirre

                Josh          Medico      

     dmoule   AMS  

          sorex   atomic  

             iZon  fl1p        

 

Map Analysis

 

LEGO played very strangely against dd+5 abs on Product. Josh took ubers but was also the only person covering the flank, and neither of the scouts were positioned defensively to guard Condom. dmoule had almost no impact, constantly distracted by aggression from qnx and dd5f, and the team generally looked a mess. For the first two rounds they were carried by the fragging ability of their players, but as soon as they were on the defensive they collapsed. Publiclir scouts showed their ability on Product against Infused, but now they can’t rely on deathmatch to carry them through. They need Medico and AMS to deliver; both of their soldiers have good deathmatch but often throw their lives away to gain position. On Product, they would be better off adapting this slightly and trying to pump out the damage and frags in their bombs, as they’re unlikely to be facing iZon or sorex on the high ground. Badlands should favour LEGO. Their midfights are strong, with dmoule in his zone, and Publiclir have looked weak on this map before.

 

Predictions

 

It’s difficult to tell which LEGO we’ll see this week. If the team has fixed their issues on Product, deciding to put iZon and sorex in more pocket roles and allowing both Josh and dmoule to play heavily on the flank, they should be able to mop up AMS and Medico. I don’t quite believe we’ll see a huge reversal in their style in the space of a few days however, so I think it’s quite possible that Publiclir will take this first map. If they do make the changes though, this should be a fairly simple win for LEGO. They have the deathmatch advantage and (usually) better co-ordination than Publiclir, but have been so inconsistent as of late. Badlands I have to give to LEGO. Unless the tilt hits them harder than a freight train, they should be winning most of the midfights and rolling this into 3 points. Overall I think that LEGO are likely to take 6 points from this game, but I’m banking on large improvements on Product. If those aren’t implemented then 3 points apiece could see both of these teams in playoffs.

 

 

 

Planet Express vs. Team Infused

 

How often, in the final week of a season, can the 6th place team play the 7th for a chance at playoffs?! It’s a sign of a Premiership that has been fiercely competitive and truly unpredictable at times, and so Planet Express and Team Infused find themselves in this situation. No less than 6 points is required to take these teams from low Premiership to a playoff spot. One must become the sacrificial lamb (or sacrificial sheepy) if either of these teams want to upset LEGO or Publiclir. One wins, or they both fall. Not that this is some kind of partnership, these teams are not going to work together for the greater good! This is competition! These teams would rather both wallow in a relegation battle than allow the other to prosper. Even if one team does win, they also need a healthy dose of luck, and are hoping that LEGO/Publiclir don’t trade points and dd+5 abs gets demolished. It’s unlikely all around but sheepy and Thaigrr are hoping against hope.

Roster Showdown

 

       Nursey          skeej         

       iikq          adysky

 DamnEasy          Quik           

    zoob   Thaigrr

    sheepy   Hank        

            pierz   Dennia         

 

Map Analysis

 

As soon as we look at Product and Badlands, there is serious doubt that Infused can make anything happen in this fixture. Their performance on Product against Publiclir, when they had already smashed Publiclir 5-0 on Gullywash, was abysmal. Hank and Dennia are one of the worst scout partnerships in Premiership, despite a long history with each other, and don’t really hold a candle to atomic and fl1p, or sheepy and pierz. Likewise when we look at their Badlands performance earlier in the season against LEGO, they got destroyed 5-0 in 10 minutes, wiping on every midfight and getting rolled to last. They lasted ten minutes! This is a team that was finding its feet in Week 1 however and I’d expect them to be better than that now. I believe that was a singularly bad map for them, but it doesn’t fill me with hope! Planet Express on the other hand are reasonably good at Product. They had a decent showing against nerdRage last week, losing 3-0 but taking the two early rounds to overtime for both teams. Their scouts played a good game, along with synced aggression from the soldier combo. iikq had a bad performance, overextending far too many times, but he won’t be punished as hard against Infused.

 

Predictions

 

It seems quite likely, given the maps, that we will see Planet Express with the majority of the points from this fixture. Product should go their way fairly easily, with sheepy and pierz shutting down the opposition and iikq’s overextension granting the team more damage rather than more deaths. On Badlands it will be more even if Infused can avoid wiping on mid every round, but that map should go towards Planet Express as well in fast-paced fashion. They’re likely to take 6 points from this game, although some form of Golden Cap on Badlands is not out of the question as the rounds rack up. If Infused can make playoffs here it will be a miracle; their main goal should be to deny the aspirations of Planet Express.

– Sideshow