Nations Cup #6 powered by Tt eSPORTS: A look back and ahead
August 5, 2016
Nations Cup #6 powered by Tt eSPORTS: A look back and ahead
As we finally enter the Round of 16 of the Nations Cup, here is a look back at the history of the matchups coming up in the Round of 16, a recap of the Group Stage and a look ahead.
England vs Wales
England | Wales | |
Nations Cup #1: 3rd/4th place* | Nations Cup #1: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #2: 3rd/4th place | Nations Cup #2: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #3: 1st place | Nations Cup #3: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #4: 4th place | Nations Cup #4: Quarter Finals | |
Nations Cup #5: 2nd place | Nations Cup #5: Round of 16 |
* The United Kingdom participated in the first Nations Cup. From my understanding most or all of the team members at the time were English, therefore the result counts towards England.
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A look back
This will be the second time these two neighbours meet in an ETF2L Nations Cup in this grudge match. The first time was in the 2nd Nations Cup, when England beat Wales 5-0 on cp_granary and a whopping 23-5 on ctf_turbine. The English lineup was comprised of the best England had to offer at the time. Names like numlocked, Shintaz, dunc, Evil, AcidReniX and Fisshu went on to later win several trophies with their teams as well as individually. Yet, in the 2nd Nations Cup, they ended up losing in the Semi finals to one of the two dominating nations at the time, an even more stacked Swedish team (who would then lose to Finland in the final). Wales on the other hand would have been rated as a solid Division 2-3 team at the time, with their standout players probably being Dave and Santa.
Group Stage Performance
England‘s run through the group stage so far has been a fairly easy one, going by their results. Out of their three matches, they only dropped 2 rounds against the Slovak Republic. Often they would even off-class to the point where almost everyone in the team played several classes in a match.
Wales came in second of their group by being a single point ahead of Hungary and Lithuania. With Mike not playing in their first two matches, they seem to have had a tougher time than most might have expected. But eventually advanced thanks to a convincing victory (with Mike) over Hungary in their last match and a single Golden Cap point from their match against Portugal.
Worth mentioning
Anderson from Wales already played in the previously mentioned match against England in Nations Cup #2 almost 7 years ago.
Starkie is the last active player of the team that won Nations Cup #3, almost 4 years ago.
A look ahead
You would expect this match to go in England‘s favour, as they seem to be the team most people would bet their hats on to go through and win the whole cup, which would be their 2nd (after Nations Cup #3). Yet if Wales are able to bring their A-team, England may have to play half-serious for once, with at least 3 of their players on their main classes.
England 90:10 Wales
Portugal vs Russia
Portugal | Russia | |
Nations Cup #1: Group Stage | Nations Cup #1: Quarter Finals | |
Nations Cup #2: Round of 16 | Nations Cup #2: Round of 16 | |
Nations Cup #3: Quarter Finals | Nations Cup #3: Round of 16 | |
Nations Cup #4: Round of 16 | Nations Cup #4: Quarter Finals | |
Nations Cup #5: Round of 16 | Nations Cup #5: Round of 16 |
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A look back
This will be the first time these two teams face each other in a Nations Cup event. The closest thing you can find which could resemble a Portugal vs Russia match would be the matches of eQuilibrium vs International Secret Intelligence Servic and eQuilibrium vs Last Man Standing , as those three teams basically represented the best Portugal and Russia had to offer at the time, and you would find most of the players playing in these teams later in their countries’ teams in Nation Cup #3. Both matches were wins for the Portuguese side. Russia, who came out as 2nd of their group behind a 1st placed Israel, would go on to lose their Round of 16 match against Sweden, in a very close fight over 3 maps, featuring 2 Golden Caps. Portugal on the other hand came out as 1st place of their own group and had an easier matchup as a result – they defeated Belgium in 2 maps in their Round of 16 match and then lost to Denmark in the Quarterfinals.
Group Stage Performance
In this year’s cup Portugal managed to top their group, only dropping a single point to Wales with fairly decisive wins over Hungary and Lithuania. Russia came 2nd in Group A with a Default Win over Slovenia, a 5-1 victory over Slovak Republic and a loss versus England, which featured a fairly awkward moment when Starkie casually walked in as Sniper through choke on cp_gullywash to drop Russia‘s medic basically uncontested.
Worth mentioning
Kiler4fun, Kalhó, Reaper and stuntz already played in the above mentioned Nations Cup #3 over 4 years ago.
Of the players who have played so far this year for Russia, only Spicy and Unlimited played for the Russian 6v6 national team before. One match in Nations Cup #4 and #5 respectively.
A look ahead
Overall this should be one of the closer Round of 16 matches. It is hard to tell if Portugal‘s mixture of “older” players with an infusion of “newer” players is stronger than a Russian team, that’s made up of a Premiership team that only came in 8th in Season 24, but is a team that has played together for an entire season. So keep your eyes out for this one.
Portugal 55:45 Russia
France vs Latvia
France | Latvia | |
Nations Cup #1: Quarter Finals | Nations Cup #1: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #2: Round of 16 | Nations Cup #2: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #3: Round of 16 | Nations Cup #3: Round of 16 | |
Nations Cup #4: Quarter Finals | Nations Cup #4: – | |
Nations Cup #5: 1st place | Nations Cup #5: – |
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A look back
Again a matchup that has not been seen before in a 6v6 Nations Cup. France, winner of the last Nations Cup, are taking on a team that have made it out of the Group Stage for only the 2nd time.
Group Stage Performance
After an expected win against Croatia and a Default Win against Romania, France came out on top after winning a tie-breaker against Iceland, one of the surprises of this year’s Nations Cup, who never gotten out of the Group Stages before.
Latvia won 2 out of their 3 matches in rather convincing fashion only losing to Denmark, who are considered the dark horse of this cup by some people. Their team’s individual skill level spans from the Mid Tier to the Premier Division with their two top players atomic- and uubers. They already tied with their biggest victory in a Nations Cup so far by getting out of their group and reaching the Round of 16. Now they are looking to go even further against a French team without the likes of NiCO god's hand, Exon., T-Mac, DeGuN, Flippy, Bulle, fl1p and a few others.
Worth mentioning
Not a single player of last Nations Cup’s winning team is left in the French roster.
doks, Koala and uubers already played in Nations Cup #3 over 4 years ago, when Latvia managed to get out of the Group Stage for the very first time.
A look ahead
France has to be considered the better team, but at the same time I would not be surprised if Latvia put up quite a fight, maybe even resulting in an upset.
France 70:30 Latvia
Denmark vs Iceland
Denmark | Iceland | |
Nations Cup #1: Group Stage | Nations Cup #1: – | |
Nations Cup #2: Round of 16 | Nations Cup #2: – | |
Nations Cup #3: 3rd place | Nations Cup #3: – | |
Nations Cup #4: Round of 16 | Nations Cup #4: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #5: Quarter Finals | Nations Cup #5: Group Stage |
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A look back
Yet another matchup with no previous history, in fact Iceland have only been competing on a national level since Nations Cup #4.
Group Stage Performance
Denmark‘s line-up could be described as the old Danish LEGO plus Thalash/ Beetle. As previously mentioned this team is somewhat of the dark horse of the tournament, despite the current LEGO line-up not being quite as Danish as they used to be, they have been the surprise team of Season 24 nevertheless. At the core LEGO have played together since Season 10! That is 14 consecutive seasons together as a team, obviously with variations in the roster. With the addition of Full Tilt‘s scout Thalash, they make a very scary roster to go up against. Denmark came in 1st in Group D with a flawless 5-0 5-0 score in every single match.
Iceland on the other side came in second of their group, after losing to France in a tiebreaker. Like France they received a Default Win against Romania, while also winning against Croatia. Against the reigning champions France we have seen one of the first minor upsets of the tournament when Iceland managed to take a map resulting in a tie at the top of the group. Leading to the aforementioned tiebreaker. Their team consists of 50% top High Tier and Premier Division players and 50% players that have not played in ETF2L for several seasons. With the small TF2 community Iceland has, it is almost a surprise they can gather 6 at all, let alone them doing as well as they are.
Worth mentioning
F2 already played in the very first Nations Cup over 8 years ago.
Iceland has one of the smallest TF2 communities, going by ETF2L registered players. Only 65 players are wearing the Icelandic flag.
This is the first time Iceland managed to get out of the Group Stage.
A look ahead
Despite Iceland showing that they are able to put up a fight against the big TF2 countries, Denmark should be the team to win this match, as 100% of their team are experienced players compared to the 50% of Iceland.
Denmark 75:25 Iceland
Sweden vs Ukraine
Sweden | Ukraine | |
Nations Cup #1: 3rd/4th place | Nations Cup #1: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #2: 2nd place | Nations Cup #2: Round of 16 | |
Nations Cup #3: 2nd place | Nations Cup #3: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #4: 2nd place | Nations Cup #4: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #5: Quarter Finals | Nations Cup #5: Group Stage |
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A look back
And yet another matchup that has not happened in this competition before.
Group Stage Performance
With convincing wins against Italy and Estonia (with only 5 Swedish players) Sweden looked like they were all set to top Group E with a flawless score. But a surprisingly strong Czech Republic (or a surprisingly weak Sweden?) resulted in them losing a map. In the end it should not matter though, as the Czech Republic lost to Italy and therefore could not force a tie breaker.
The Ukraine easily won against the Swiss confederates and did not stumble over Scotland either, despite sheepy dog's hand‘s claims to “lead Scotland to victory” again. But against Israel the boys in blue and yellow had to tap out after a close 2-1 and 3-2 (in Golden Cap) leaving them in 2nd place.
Worth mentioning
Sweden is facing a similar problem as France. The team that seemed to suffer from some variant of the “TCM-Byte-Syndrome”, resulting in them placing 2nd three times in a row, lost the core of their “oldschool” players. From the old squad with the likes of Zebbosai, 2nuts, Knutsson, ryb, bybzii, Dahlbeck, jukebox and wltrs only “Mr. Impossible shot” BeaVerN is left, who first played in Nations Cup #3 over 4 years ago.
A look ahead
Despite quite a roster shake up Sweden should be the favourite going into this match. The Ukraine may have stand out players like Abra, lippy and kensi., but the other half of the roster comes in with a Mid Tier background, as a result Sweden should win this match.
Sweden 80:20 Ukraine
Israel vs Czech Republic
Israel | Czech Republic | |
Nations Cup #1: Group Stage | Nations Cup #1: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #2: Quarter Finals | Nations Cup #2: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #3: Round of 16 | Nations Cup #3: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #4: Round of 16 | Nations Cup #4: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #5: Round of 16 | Nations Cup #5: Group Stage |
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A look back
Israel and the Czech Republic first met in Nations Cup #2 during the Group Stage. When an Israeli star ensemble featuring matnuN, Royze, Retsh0ck and Player Thirty-Two met a Czech team fielding most of their players from Division 3 or 4. The result was a fairly one sided 6-1 on cp_granary and a seemingly close 8-4 on ctf_turbine. The Czech Republic would not make it out of the Group Stage at the time, while Israel went ahead and achieved their biggest Nations Cup success so far. After beating Portugal in three maps in their Round of 16 match, the later champion Finland managed to stop them in their tracks in the Quarter Finals.
Group Stage Performance
Israel had a fairly solid run through their Group Stage matches, only dropping a single point to the Ukraine resulted in them sitting atop of Group F in the end.
The Czech Republic‘s run cannot be described as smooth. After a clear cut win against the underdog Estonia, they lost to Italy with 2-4 but salvaged their advance to the Playoff Stage by taking a map off of Sweden in their third match, ending exactly 3 points ahead of Italy.
Worth mentioning
This is the first time the Czech Republic managed to get out of the Group Stage.
A look ahead
Similar to the Portugal vs Russia match this may be one of the closer ones. Since Israel has a team mostly consisting of Foreskings players, you should expect them to play better together, but the Czech Republic has shown against Sweden that they are not in this cup to get rolled. Despite this surprising result I think Israel may come out ahead, especially since the loss against Italy makes it look like the Czech Republic may just have been lucky or Sweden may have had a bad day.
Israel 60:40 Czech Republic
Finland vs Poland
Finland | Poland | |
Nations Cup #1: 1st place | Nations Cup #1: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #2: 1st place | Nations Cup #2: Quarter Finals | |
Nations Cup #3: Quarter Finals | Nations Cup #3: Round of 16 | |
Nations Cup #4: 3rd place | Nations Cup #4: Round of 16 | |
Nations Cup #5: Quarter Finals | Nations Cup #5: Quarter Finals |
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A look back
Two Nations Cups ago, these two vodka-loving countries faced off against each other. Back then, Finland came out as the winner with a 5-1 victory on cp_badlands as well as cp_granary. After eliminating Poland in the Round of 16, Finland would continue to roll Spain in the Quarter Finals before being halted by Sweden in the Semis. They would then take a 3rd place against England, because England could not get a decent enough roster together to make it worth playing.
Group Stage Performance
If it was not for Poland Finland would have had a flawless 5-0 run throughout the Group Stage. Austria and Spain did not appear to be worthy opponents for the two time champions and the Netherlands only managed to not get 5-0’d twice.
Poland started out by drawing against Norway. At this point it was pretty clear already, unless either team messed up against Bulgaria or Germany messed up against either team, that they would meet again, to settle this once and for all. In the anticipated tiebreaker Poland managed to beat Norway over two maps and secured the 2nd spot for themselves.
Worth mentioning
Finland is the only country winning two consecutive Nations Cups as well as the only team winning a total of two Nations Cups so far. But the last time was almost 7 years ago…
Poland‘s Kazachu already played in Nations Cup #3 over 4 years ago.
A look ahead
Ever since their last top finish, Finland, like many other nations, lost quite a few of their “star players”. Yet they usually managed to replace them somewhat adequately. As adequately as you can replace a hymzi, a hocz, a cookye , a Darn, a Punpu, a Rebeli, a kyynel, a haza, an agron or a zappis, a Moose and others. Regardless they may have to shift into the next gear if they want to continue their predecessor’s success, as they got knocked out in the last Nations Cup in the Quarter Finals already… by Lithuania!
At the same time we have a Polish team, that is generally well rounded and has a bunch of experienced players, but also lost some of their more experienced ones in Bonkers and phromelo.
Overall Finland will probably win this match, as they have more experienced replacements for their losses compared to Poland, yet Poland will surely put up a fight to once again reach the Quarter Finals.
Finland 65:35 Poland
Germany vs Netherlands
Germany | Netherlands | |
Nations Cup #1: Quarter Finals | Nations Cup #1: Group Stage | |
Nations Cup #2: Quarter Finals | Nations Cup #2: Round of 16 | |
Nations Cup #3: Quarter Finals | Nations Cup #3: Round of 16 | |
Nations Cup #4: 1st place | Nations Cup #4: Round of 16 | |
Nations Cup #5: 4th place | Nations Cup #5: – |
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A look back
These two western nations have only met once in the third Nations Cup group stages where Germany won 6-1 and 5-0 on Gullywash and Granary respectively. The German core of basH., schocky and Brego played in that match and have been representing Germany at almost every Nations Cup since the 3rd edition of the cup over 4 years ago.
Group Stage Performance
While the Dutch team had a decent showing in the group stage smashing Spain 5-0 on both maps, as well as being the only team in the group to get a round of the Goliaths of Finland. They did have a closer game vs Austria winning by only one round on process.
Ze Germans were even more dominant in their group performances not losing a single round with the only map that didn’t result in a 5-0 win was a 3-0 win over Norway on cp_badlands.
Worth mentioning
The super star soldier duo for the Netherlands, kaptain and damneasy have not represented the Netherlands in a 6v6 Nations Cup prior to this event.
The Netherlands missed out on the 5th Nations Cup due to nobody realizing no Dutch person had applied to be the captain until after the deadline.
A look ahead
Despite The Netherlands reasonably positive Group Stage performance they have yet to show any reason why they will be able to compete with Germany. Especially with DamnEasy away on holiday, the burden will fall squarely on kaptain‘s shoulders if The Netherlands want to stand a chance of a close game.
Unlike most countries Germany has retained a core of experienced premiership players, combined with upcoming flamboyant dd5f and his shovel. This team looks like one that could contend for the title.
The final result of this game will probably be 5-0 5-0 unless kaptain can pull some magic, the veterans of Germany will make this a very one sided match up.
Germany 90:10 Netherlands
Thanks to England and Wales playing ahead of time I had to release this somewhat prematurely. I’ll format it on the go, just wanted to get it out before England and Wales played.
holy moly!
A “5-0 5-0 probably” is not a 90:10 in my book
Otherwise a great read
How are you comparing the assumed results of maps and the probability of the overall outcome? There’s always a chance The Netherlands will go massive and Germany will throw, that chance is the 10. :> Regardless of that chance, the assumed result can still be 5-0 5-0.
Great work, Sonny! Thanks
7:31 PM – ?: that feel when you need to write a news post about netherlands germany
7:31 PM – ?: what is the polite way to say you are going to get fucking raped
@Sonny It’s directly comparable, both numbers come from the power level of the teams. One out of 10 games that are expected to be 5-0 on both maps don’t end up in major upsets. But ok.
It was supposed to be: Germany has a chance of 90% to win and The Netherlands has a 10% chance to win. The 5-0 5-0 was and is just one of the many results Germany could win with over The Netherlands (if kaptain didn’t carry enough :p) within the 90% win chance. Germany can win each map with whatever score and the 90% win chance would still hold true.
At the same time I can see where you are coming from, but it was not meant like that.
Great read!
Interesting post. I have a question. Does someone know why skeej is not playing for Netherlands?
@¡AL TURRÓN! I can’t get in touch with him, he also has periods he isn’t online for multiple days
At least it wasn’t 5-0 and 5-0 :3